“Ever-changing course” – that’s how American media characterizes Donald Trump’s policy in the Middle East. When it comes to Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other states, policy reversals sometimes happen within a day. This is certainly interesting for journalists writing about politics and beneficial for stock market players who have access to insights. But it does not contribute to stability in the world.
Last Friday, US embassies in Middle Eastern countries issued a security warning, advising Americans to “reconsider travel plans to the region.” Notifications were published by American diplomatic missions in Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, as well as in Jerusalem. These measures followed a warning for US citizens worldwide issued by the State Department.
“The scale of threats and the overall situation are the most serious I have ever seen. The situation has become extremely unstable, and the indicators we observe in the agency – and I have certainly never seen anything like this in my 24-year career – are simply off the charts,” said Sean Cairn, director of the secret service responsible for protecting presidents, to journalists. This is about the situation inside America, threats to politicians and ordinary citizens attending mass events.
The most recent example occurred on Sunday at a festival in Seattle where three people were killed and four wounded, including a two-year-old child. One suspect has been arrested, while another remains at large. The motives for the shooting are still unknown.
In the past two weeks, four US military personnel have been killed as a result of Iranian strikes on American targets in the Middle East. Trump visited Dover Air Force Base, where he attended a ceremony to receive the remains of the deceased. At present, 18 American military personnel have died, and over 600 have been injured. Trump wrote that he finds it amusing when people refer to numbers to criticize the war. The losses are much lower than in other conflicts. “Here are the real facts. WRITE ABOUT IT!” demanded the president from journalists.
In one moment, he threatens to “destroy an ancient civilization,” and in another, he says that “new reasonable people” have come to power in Iran. Then he called them “scoundrels,” and then said that the new people he was referring to “died under bombings” – the narratives are constantly changing. Supporters of the president call this “the art of the deal” and urge to judge by actions, not words. The problem is that the stated goals and positions at the beginning of the war, about which Washington is currently trying to negotiate with Tehran, are diverging further from the Americans’ favor.
Last Thursday, Trump told Axios, “I am considering a massive strike. More powerful than ever before. I am close to making a decision.” However, on Friday, during his 38-minute speech in the Oval Office, the president mentioned six times that his representatives were negotiating with Iran. “There is a military path: to continue to act as we are now or even increase pressure and destroy everything they have. And there is a more reasonable strategy – to make a deal. And they want to make a deal,” Trump told journalists.
Last month, the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at opening the Strait of Hormuz as a preliminary step towards negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. The negotiations quickly collapsed, and Iran resumed blocking the waterway, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil was previously transported. As the Washington Post writes, the Iranian armed forces have suffered greatly from airstrikes, but the regime has demonstrated viability and proven that it only needs a small number of inexpensive drones and sea mines to demonstrate power in global energy markets.
Attacks by pro-Iranian Houthis on oil tankers in the Red Sea have expanded the geography of the conflict and contributed to the price of crude oil exceeding $100. On Friday, it slightly decreased to $96 per barrel, significantly higher than the $60 level at the beginning of the year.
On a day when Trump was speaking to journalists about diplomacy with Iran, he held a meeting with advisors to discuss escalating military action against Iran; reported The New York Times, citing four sources familiar with the discussion. Prior to that, Tehran rejected the latest American proposal for a ceasefire. After the latest truce collapsed, the sides exchanged blows for 13 consecutive nights.
Over the weekend, Trump announced a two-week pause in bombing Iran – not for the first time. On Monday, Iranian authorities announced that they still control the Strait of Hormuz and “are not seeking peaceful negotiations with America.” Another ellipsis has been put in the conflict.
According to the results of a new poll by CBS News, published on Sunday, the majority of Americans feel “strong concern and disappointment” as the war with Iran drags on and continues to escalate contrary to initial expectations. The survey, conducted on July 22-24, showed that the majority of citizens (63%) are dissatisfied with how the conflict with Iran is unfolding for the US.
As it has been in the past, Trump will inevitably blame someone for his failures. The Israeli Problem. The main candidate for this role now is the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom supporters of the MAGA movement accuse of misleading the “impulsive” Trump, convincing him of the imminent collapse of the Iranian regime. Netanyahu arrives in Washington to attend the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham and meet with Trump – for the first time since the start of the military operation against Iran.
The problem in relations arose after the collapse of US negotiations with Iran when Netanyahu publicly threatened to strike powerful blows to Shiite neighborhoods in Beirut if Hezbollah attacks do not stop. Iran suspended ceasefire talks, betting that Trump is so interested in resolving the conflict that he will prefer to restrain Israel rather than risk a large-scale regional war. According to several American and Israeli media outlets, during a “dramatic” phone call, Trump demanded that Israel immediately halt the fire in Lebanon. Trump reportedly rudely asked, “What the hell” Netanyahu was doing, and stated that he “saved him from prison” (referring to his attempts to persuade President Itzhak Herzog to pardon Netanyahu in connection with the corruption charges). In Netanyahu’s office, CNN was told that the conversation was not tense and was held in a friendly atmosphere.
“Today, I talked to Bibi Netanyahu and asked him not to launch a massive raid on Beirut. He withdraws his troops. Thank you, Bibi!” Trump wrote on the Truth Social network. The reaction in Israel was “ambiguous.” Trump wants Tehran, Beirut, Riyadh, Doha, Cairo, and other capitals in the Middle East to understand: he controls the escalation rates, and Netanyahu obeyed his order to end the operation, wrote commentator Dan Perry. “No Israeli prime minister has ever agreed to such a humiliating demand,” said former Chief of Staff and current prime ministerial candidate Gadi Eisenkot on social media. Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, whose coalition poses a serious threat to Netanyahu in the upcoming October elections, effectively accused him of allowing the US to dictate Israel’s military policy.
The Saudi “misunderstanding”. A day after the US signed a nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, President Trump made a condition for selling nuclear reactors to the kingdom, stating that the deal now depends on Saudi Arabia’s readiness to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. “This deal depends entirely on Saudi Arabia’s accession to the highly respected and successful Abraham Accords,” Trump wrote on his social network, referring to a series of agreements normalizing Israel’s relations with several neighboring states, including Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
The president’s statement immediately precluded the agreement signed with Saudi Arabia the day before. The Saudi government has repeatedly stated that it has no intention of recognizing Israel without creating conditions for the formation of a Palestinian state. When asked by White House press secretary Caroline Levitt why this condition was not mentioned on Wednesday during the deal announcement, she said that it is the president who makes the final decision and “repeatedly” mentioned the need for Saudi Arabia to join the accords. “If they do not join the Abraham Accords, the deal will not happen,” Levitt said. Energy Minister Chris Wright, who signed the deal with Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, said the deal will now be sent to Congress for consideration; however, Trump is likely to delay its submission.
According to sources, the agreement provides for a two-year study period during which representatives from Saudi Arabia and the US must determine if there is an economically viable path for the kingdom to enrich nuclear fuel. Trump added uncertainty, stating in his post that “there will be no nuclear material enrichment.” “It is not worth looking at what Trump has just said; you need to look at the content of the agreement,” said Yoel Guzansky, an expert on Saudi Arabia and non-proliferation issues at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “I think he was guided by good intentions. But he does not always perceive reality adequately,” the expert was quoted by NYT. No one in the Trump administration can explain how exactly they plan to persuade the Saudis to agree to a deal that differs from the one they signed just hours earlier, writes The New Republic.
In this regard, an anonymous Saudi official commented on the situation: “The agreement has already been signed. So there is no need to revise it. Tweets (on social media) do not negate signed agreements.”
Gaza: words and deeds. One of the most striking contrasts between Trump’s intentions and real actions is the fate of the “World Council on the Gaza Sector” convened by him, which he called “the greatest and most authoritative council ever assembled anywhere.” In February, the inaugural meeting took place at the Washington Institute for Peace, and today, local media almost do not mention this organization. The British write that this is because the organization’s activities involve former Prime Minister Tony Blair.
In February, Trump said the World Council would not only deal with Gaza but also control future UN funding. Many major US allies, including Western European countries, refused to join Trump’s World Council. A representative of the French Foreign Ministry complained about the “uncertainty” in the council’s sphere of activity.
At the first meeting, nine participating countries pledged $7 billion for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, and Albania announced their readiness to send peacekeeping contingents to Gaza, while Egypt and Jordan pledged to deploy servicemen to train local police. Trump also said that the US would contribute $10 billion to the Council’s fund, without specifying, however, where these funds would come from and whether consultations with Congress were held on this issue. As reported by The New York Times, there was a noticeable contrast between the impressive sums and the lack of specifics regarding political measures.
In January, in Davos, the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner presented the “general plan of the World Council.” He demonstrated a detailed presentation, which the British Independent called a “futuristic utopia”: elite apartments – over 100,000 residential units, 75 medical facilities, a data processing center, and facilities for “coastal tourism.” Kushner painted a picture of a world where water supply and sanitation systems, hospitals, and bakeries would be restored within 100 days, and humanitarian and medical assistance would flow unhindered. Gaza was then called the “new Riviera.”
Six months later, the ambitious dream was abandoned. As reported by The Guardian, a modest pilot project replaced it: placing prefabricated residential modules for a small part of the Palestinian population in a buffer zone along the ceasefire line near the city of Rafah in southern Gaza. International security forces and a specially trained unit of the Palestinian police should oversee the project’s implementation. However, even these works will not start before the end of the year. With the start of military operations in Iran, the White House completely shifted the focus of its Middle East policy. In June, officials met in Cyprus, and a new plan was agreed with the participation of advisors from Tony Blair’s institute and members of the national Gaza Management Committee. The funding for the pilot project has still not been confirmed, despite the initial promise of $17 billion. As reported by The Guardian, large-scale preparatory work to create a pilot camp and base to support international security forces has not started to date.
As of June, the World Bank reportedly did not receive a penny of the billions promised by donor countries (including the US) for Gaza’s restoration goals.